“In Turkey, anything can change in a couple of minutes.” There is certainly wisdom in this assertion. Currently, the agenda is changing is so swift that you discuss something and you forget about it the next day.

This happens faster as regards the political scene. For some time, we were talking about Hakan Fidan, who resigned from his office as the head of the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) to run for Parliament.  We were making predictions: will he become Foreign Minister or Deputy Prime Minister or Public Security Minister in the new governmental term?

And now?

The master agenda changer and setter has stepped in and the atmosphere has changed. As President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has invited him to active politics, former President Abdullah Gül has become the top agenda item.

I touched on the possible reasons for this sudden ‘interest’ in the former president in my previous article.

This interest has certainly something to do with the balance of power within the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) as well as with the party’s future. Erdoğan has made a move against the attempted reorganization of the party with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and Fidan at its center.

The Presidential Palace and the AK Party have ‘rediscovered’ Gül months later.

Everyone is making comments and high-sounding assertions, but what will be Gül’s position?

Will Gül return to his party despite the fact that he hasn’t renewed his membership with the party for the last six months? Will he run for Parliament although he has asserted that he wouldn’t be a deputy candidate?

Energy Minister Taner Yıldız said Gül’s candidacy “will be decided Erdoğan, Gül and Davutoğlu together” but…

Is that all?

There are also the “procedures” involved. Gül cannot be invited via the press.

Prime Minister Davutoğlu must visit him at his home and make the invitation. He will surely do it!

Suppose that “formal” conditions are fulfilled. Will Gül’s answer be affirmative?

To find an answer, I have talked to various sources all through the day.

The first one I talked to was a deputy who is very close to Gül. He said to me: “Mr. Gül is utterly resentful. His name crosses their mind so many months later. Is that acceptable? It would be good if he runs for Parliament, but I don’t think he will do it.”

Another one believed Gül would go with candidacy, with some wishful thinking. “No one in the party can speak out. Everyone is tense. We need some relief. Mr. Gül must be in the party in the new term. I think he will come and show that he cares about the party,” he said.

The final contact was a person who loves Mr. Gül very much, and who is loved by Mr. Gül.

He conveyed the words of someone who met Mr. Gül yesterday to me. The meeting came after Erdoğan’s statement that it would “be good if he runs for Parliament.” Mr. Gül made it clear that he “won’t be part of the moves of the intra-party” politics.

What we gather from this remark is that there is no guarantee that Gül will run for Parliament.

He will certainly not go and run for Parliament after he was invited via the press.

It will undoubtedly be up to Gül in the first place to decide whether to run for Parliament. The intensity of the demands from the government and the party as well as from the party’s grassroots will also influence his decision.

But, a factor is ignored:

What will be Mrs. Gül’s reaction?

Mrs. Gül had been extremely heartbroken and resentful before his husband stepped down as President.

In the “farewell reception” in August, then “First Lady” had made harsh remarks:

“We are going through a period that serves a litmus test. We have seen what has been written. We have heard what has been said. I know everything. Mr. Gül would cut down my Internet connection and remove newspapers and press releases so that I don’t feel sad, but we know very well what is what and who is who. Abdullah does not say anything because he is a polite person. He has been subject to so much disrespect. Some of what we went through, we did not witness such things even in the February 28, 1997 coup era, when my headscarf was the subject of debates. Now I keep silent, but I will not remain so for long. I will start the real intifada.”

Mrs. Gül didn’t start that “intifada.” I don’t know if she has curbed her anger against what was “done” them…

But she will certainly influence heavily Mr. Gül’s decision.

There is something else. If Gül chooses to return, this will ring alarm bells for certain members of the AK Party!

If Gül comes back, some AK Party politicians cannot retain their former power and even can hardly made into the lists of deputy candidates.

Have you noticed something during the last few days?

The “specific weight” started to get an upper hand.

The new generation of politicians has been overshadowed. They have been silent.

Having noticed the risk of the party’s “axis shift,” the “old” politicians have flexed their muscle.

First, they made the three-term move. It was a “bold” move even if it was futile.

Bülent Arınç sent messages to several targets with one speech. He lent support to the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) and contested the plan to make Fidan Foreign Minister in the new period –a move which many believed as “guaranteed”– and stated that he want Gül to assume the state’s number-two position.

Those who were rumored to have “flipped Arınç off” are keeping quiet!

Prime Minister Davutoğlu backed Ali Babacan. Davutoğlu, Arınç and Babacan have acted in perfect harmony in connection with the debates concerning the CBT and economic management.

Actually, the party has apparently sided with the government and Babacan in the debates concerning the CBT and interest rate cuts.

The politicians who have been arguing that “Gül should be in active politics” such as Beşir Atalay, Mehmet Ali Şahin and Hüseyin Çelik are making public appearances on TV.

They are the same politicians who sent Gül off at the airport after his departure from the Presidential Palace. They are the same ones who met Gül during the Friday prayer.

The party’s “old” politicians lent support to Babacan during the CBT crisis.

As regards Fidan, the “old” politicians are aligned with President Erdoğan.

President Erdoğan has made such a cryptic move that we know there is a new game plan, but not what it is.

The cards are being reshuffled within the AK Party.

Some pro-Erdoğan columnists had expressed their concern that “there are attempts to isolate Erdoğan at the Presidential Palace.”

After this move from the Palace, things won’t be easy for Fidan.

Someone from the AK Party said to me: “He will just be a deputy. That’s all!”

At the end of the day, the winners are Gül, Arınç and Babacan.

Now Prime Minister Davutoğlu’s leadership will see the real test, particularly with respect the Cabinet meeting scheduled at the Palace on March 9 and the drawing of the lists of deputy candidates…

Let’s see if Davutoğlu will take a rabbit out of his hat.