The Erdoğan-as-President-and-Gül-as-Parliament-Speaker formula against the Davutoğlu-Fidan duo

 

Abdullah Gül was playing the “ lonely man of Bosporus” at the Huber Mansion after his presidential term ended.

Although he had been the second man in charge before he was elected as President, he had not returned to his party after the end of his term. Actually, he wasn’t invited either.

Gül had entered the state of ‘inaction’ until the elections slated for June 7, and he wouldn’t run for Parliament.

But today the state of affairs is different.

First, rumors started to circulate.

And today, statements were made one after another. “I think it would be the right move if he opts to run for Parliament,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Bülent Arınç, the second man in charge at the government, said it is his heartfelt desire that Gül should become Parliament Speaker.

Mehmet Ali Şahin, the second man in charge at the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s ‘key advisor’ Hüseyin Çelik ‘ran

into’ Gül during the Friday prayer.

The timing was really meaningful!

Can all this be ‘coincident’ or ‘accident‘?

No!

Something is happing within the AK Party. What we see is the search for a new balance in the face of the possibility of a change in the balance.

Let me say what has disrupted the balance: Hakan Fidan’s running for Parliament.

Whatever happened, it did happen after the evening of February 7.

Don’t forget that President Erdoğan said, “I am still resentful” [for Fidan’s resignation].

Fidan’s nomination was perceived as the reorganization of the government and the party. In the new period, many started to believe, the AK Party will be shaped along the ‘Davutoğlu-Fidan’ axis.

The perception was: Just as the ‘Erdoğan-Gül’ duo had brought the party to this day, the ‘Davutoğlu-Fidan’ duo will do the same for the future.

The target of establishing the ‘new Turkey’ will be attained with Davutoğlu as Prime Minister and Fidan as Foreign Minister.

Fidan’s nomination had played into Davutoğlu‘s hands.

This not only disappointed Erdoğan, but also contradicted with his future plans.

Erdoğan’s priority is obvious: securing 400 seats in Parliament, amending the Constitution and becoming the ‘president’ of a presidential system. The model he envisions does not have any room for a ‘prime minister’.

If a party-centric ‘architecture’ is to be developed, who should do this is obvious, isn’t it?

There’s a critical date ahead of us!

Whatever will be done, it should have been done before that date.

The most important development ahead of elections of June 7 is the preparation of the lists of deputy candidates.

Until one month ago, the rumor was that at least 85 percent of the list would be decided by President Erdoğan.

The tide turned after Fidan‘s nomination. More and more people started to suggest that Davutoğlu will throw his weight about the lists.

Some columnists close to Erdoğan are now talking about Erdoğan’s increased isolation at the presidential palace.

The most critical turning point in the short term for the future of the relationship between Erdoğan and Davutoğlu as well as the future of the AK Party is certainly the drawing of the ‘lists’…

That moment is nearing!

A ‘move‘ was expected before that date.

Davutoğlu acted early with his Fidan move.

Erdoğan responded with the Gül move. Yet, some were expecting the Gül move from Davutoğlu.

Gül has become the ‘joker’ of the ‘power’ struggle at the party.

Just as Arınç hinted, Erdoğan wants to see Gül as Parliament Speaker.

With this surprise move, Erdoğan appeals to the party’s ‘traditions’.

In the face of the Davutoğlu-as-Prime-Minister-and-Fidan-as-Foreign-Minister plan, Erdoğan came with the Erdoğan-President-and-Gül-as-Parliament-Speaker formula.

What will be Gül‘s reactions?

Previously, many senior figures had tried to persuade him for running for Parliament in vain.

Prime Minister Davutoğlu didn’t invite him.

At this stage, it has become inevitable for Davutoğlu and the party to send him a strong ‘invitation’.

He may or may not run for Parliament, but he already dragged an inch closer to active politics.